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In the world of cryptocurrency fantasy valuation this is possible...at least $10...but such valuations across the sector have little to do with reality and this explains hbar's struggle to break out despite its technical and governance superiority. Emin Sirer Gun, inventor of AVA, discussing the idea of tying proof of work to useful work proposed the problem of the "price anchor". If a digital asset is tied to useful work then that work becomes the anchor of its value and that means it is not amenable to fantasy valuation which has no anchor and can "go to the moon"...Hedera as a platform aims to do useful work and the price mathematics on that score are not good. Of the 50 billion total supply, 20 billion are "released" and let's say people hold on to half of that for speculative purposes. So we have 10 billion out there held to pay for services on the network. At $0.0001 for basic transactions and consensus calls...those 10 billion HBARs will buy 25 trillion transactions. At a $1, 100 trillion transactions. At $10, 1 quadrillion transactions. It is comical. There is no conceivable use case for that many transactions. At current capacity, Hedera is tested at 100,000 tps on one shard. At full capacity (which would outstrip anything seen in the sector today) that is about 3 trillion transactions per year. So it would take decades even at those levels to use up 10 billion HBARs. Total credit card transactions globally per year are on the order of 500 billion per year....The only imaginable use case of this volume would be distributed computing that runs a consensus call thousands of times per second. But if Hedera is all over the news and running a trillion transactions per year...a speculative feeding frenzy could push hbar prices into the double digits.

Chris
So you think the total supply is too high?

More like transaction fee is too low to maintain much value on user fees alone. As a "store of value" all bets are off but I'm not much of a believer in cryptocurrency as a store of value.

I disagree strongly with there not being a use case for that many transactions, hcs is often used to record events immutably, The amount of potentially recordable events happening on earth every second is unimaginable

I don't know...that pretty much defines the whole sector right now...Hedera is out to offer a serious service, but what is the value of a consensus service?

Lee Bullish
I disagree strongly with there not being a use cas...

Picture google using adsdax style anti ad fraud for example, thats probably in the trillions of hcs transactions a year.

Yes that is the idea. But what kinds of events need quadrillions of immutable records?..maybe some of these ESG projects? what I'm proposing is this idea of distributed computing using zero-knowledge proofs like what Nillion (see below) is offering combined with Hedera time stamps, or perhaps if all self-driven vehicles were pinging location data off each other hundreds of times per second...but these use cases are still a long way off...sorry if this sounds like FUD. I'm all in on Hedera and have been since 2019. But I've also wondered why Hedera never got the "moon darling" treatment. Some of it is market games but some of it is fundamental. Hbarprice bad mouthing does not compare to this. But I may be wrong. See Dany's "store of value" piece for a counter-calculation...see post below this one https://www.nillion.com/

Lee Bullish
I disagree strongly with there not being a use cas...

Yes...we do need to think big....this kind of thing for example, which presumably Boeing and SpaceX must be considering https://www.ledgerinsights.com/lockheed-martin-blockchain-to-secure-satellite-communications/

Crypto Consciousness
Yes that is the idea. But what kinds of events nee...

Been looking into Nillion. At first glance I see how it can massively benefit existing blockchain tech by providing a super secure layer for existing L1.....but Hedera is already ABFT and fantastically scaleable already.

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