People are talking about Stader staking and current hbar to

hbarx exchange rate being 1.04 and possible 1.1 by June....so a 10% gain in 3 months...pretty good...except if you consider that a general market decline was expected by late last year and that had you just sold a portion of your holdings then and re-bought now you'd see a 300% gain or more (in hbar)...Stader's first staked token was Luna which just went to zero...is Stader staking just a means by which Stader shorts the market?....as they can now pay out the 50 million hbar promised to stakers while pocketing a 2x or 3x gain from selling the staked hbar and buying it back cheaply in order to exchange hbarx back into hbar at 1:1.1 ratio?

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A hedge fund announced that they shorting Tether....is this their technique?

I am to understand that the hbar foundation also has to sign off on any Stader sale of staked hbar...is this actually true? Does it only apply to Foundation funds given to Stader?

How could they short the staked HBAR? It is sitting in the contract at 0.0.834119. The HBARF hold some of the multi-sig keys so even if we weren’t watching the TVL closely Stader is not able to move them without a complicit Foundation. Also, there have been multiple AMAs and the question of what do you do with the staked HBAR has been asked multiple times - nothing. We stake them. Period.

No. It applies to the actual working smart contracts. Again - asked and answered multiple times.

Note that the schedule for Hbar staking incentivized the locking up of 400 million hbar....is that enough to generate sell pressure to exacerbate a bear market to the advantage of Stader? (And the disadvantage of regular hbar holders)

Okay...I take your word for it

How does locking up HBAR cause sell pressure? If anything by removing HBAR from the market it would cause upward pressure.

PLEASE don’t take my word for it. Listen to the recorded AMAs. Ask at an AMA. Ask the HBARF. Look up info on an explorer. The ecosystem is pretty accessible.

I was assuming that the hbar that was exchanged for Hbarx was in Stader's hands to do with as they please until the end of the lock up period...if that is not the case then it is just the pointless 50 million hbar giveaway that was advertised. I still can't say I get it. I have to assume that Stader somehow can leverage the locked hbar.

Again, listen and ask at the AMAs. Leveraging the staked HBAR is NOT a part of their business model. The HBAR HAVE to be staked to the network because staking rewards (once live) are how they grow the value of HBARX.

I listened to their first ama and it was entirely unconvincing as is their whitepaper. I don't see the point of what they are doing other than to act as the vehicle for a 50 million hbar giveaway that is intended to butter up hbar holders to stake to other riskier DeFi protocols in the future.

And as you and I have discussed before…you are 100% correct. That is exactly what they are doing in concert with the HBARF. That is the stated goal of the Foundation - build instant TVL. Stakers are on no way obligated to use any of the DeFi products.

Staked to what network? Hbar cannot yet be staked to Hedera and when it is the rewards are expected to be small....if you are talking about staking to Stader...they don't have network, they are just funneling hbar foundation hbars into the hbarx contract for a 10% withdrawal fee at the end

If that's it, then it doesn't surprise me nor impress me very much. I'd be more impressed if they were boldly shorting the market

Also after Foundation subsidy is used, will HbarX price be warrantied not to lose the current value over Hbar. There is no information what happens in July if significant number wish to unstake, once 50M runs out and HbarX is on its own from that point.

We will see then in July, if that is not aimed to work via some risky DeFi. If the price of HbarX will only be going up even by small % from that point, once the Foundation funds completely runs out.

HBARX value is based on the number of HBAR each HBARX represents - the exchange rate. Currently 1 HBARX is worth 1.0485 HBARs. That number will never go down precisely because the HBAR behind that value are sitting in the contract waiting for their owners to claim them. The exchange rate can only increase.

Then I suppose they'll have to find a DeFi or even regular Fi strategy to actually make money. The easy short plays will be mostly played out by July pending the results of the Tether short...so what happens then? Complete unknowns to me

At least for now Tether recovered fully the dollar peg but it took days. Not that I will keep these stable coins and stake them. In one app the staking used to be done daily, you could enter in and out daily for 6% API. Now is min either 1 or 3 months lock up period, never been that before. On BTC is still daily for similar percentage. I don’t own any of them.