that term. People do pay our group to make probabilistic forecasts on a wide range of questions. But, what they find most valuable is exactly what you are asking for, why?
<deezick> So it's just a guess?
Here's a guess, in April 10, 2020 predicting over a million covid-19 deaths in the U.S., back when the imhe was predicting it would be over in the summer of 2020 with less than 60k. https://cafebedouin.org/2020/04/10/grim-news-cutting-through-the-covid-19-bullshit/
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