I have a technical question related to predictoor. What is

Question

I have a technical question related to predictoor. What is

stopping someone from running a bot that always says up and another that always says down. Winning and losing everytime: the winner gets what the loser wagered AND farming rewards. The loser only loses what they have wagered. If the same person runs both bots wouldnt they be in profit as long as the other Predictoors are close to 50% right as well?

I have noticed that on the BTC pair there is almost always as much wagered for and against price going up and down. Meaning this could be a possible tactic people are using. If we look at the overall accuracy over the last month on autobot, the accuracy is very close to 50% meaning that this approach would be very profitable given the great farming rewards.

IF the above is correct it would make sense that volume always increases because you simply are able to keep staking more because you just restake the farming rewards.

The number one earning predictoor this last month has an accuracy of 50.41%. The number 2 has an accuracy 49.81%. In other words the top earners this last month arent much better than a coin-flip. Predictoors overall accuracy this last month is 50.17%. The slight positive accuracy could be due to chance or because some genuine actors are moving the needle slightly in the right direction.

This is only a theory and I could very well be wrong, but I would be interested to know what you think.

In essence is this true?: running a for and an against prediction is zero sum, but + farming rewards is net gain. This is true as long as the farming rewards outweigh the potential loss from algorithms that on avarage are better than chance.

#cryptocurrency #english #ocean

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04.02.2024

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Keshav || Ocean Protocol

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10 месяцев назад

KreigDK | Never DM first🌊 · Accepted Answer

The predictoor system is designed with an incentive structure that rewards accurate predictions and penalizes incorrect ones. If a predictoor bot consistently bets on both up and down outcomes, it would have its incorrect predictions slashed, and the staked amount would be distributed among those who made the correct predictions. Additionally, the Predictoor DF rewards are based on net earnings, which are calculated as total sales to the predictoor minus the predictoor stake slashed due to being wrong. Therefore, simply betting on both outcomes would not guarantee a net gain, as losses from incorrect predictions would offset gains from correct ones, and the farming rewards are tied to net earnings, not gross activity. The system is not designed to be gameable in such a straightforward manner, and the rewards from Predictoor Data Farming are intended to amplify earnings based on accuracy and stake, not to provide a loophole for exploiting the system.

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