Confirmation wait time statistics are even worse than I thought.

Question

Confirmation wait time statistics are even worse than I thought.

I did the math using Poisson distribution, and that gives us the number of blocks longer than X, e.g. 14% of block intervals will be longer than 20 minutes.
Does that mean that when you decide to make a TX there's a 14% you'll have to wait longer than 20minutes? NO. There's 40% you'll have to wait more than 20min!

To understand why, imagine an equal distribution: there's 25% 40min blocks, 25% 20min blocks, 25% 10min blocks, 25% 5min blocks. You could jump to conclusion and think there's 50% chance of being under <10min because 2/4 blocks are <10min yeah?

But the network spends a lot more *time* in the slow block intervals, as illustrated by the sketch. So if you randomly pick a point on this line, chances are much greater that you'll land in a long one.

#bch #bitcoincash #cryptocurrency #english

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04.08.2024

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Mathieu G · Accepted Answer

Mathieu G

yeah thanks for updating these statistics!

0

4 месяца назад

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Confirmation wait time statistics are even worse than I thought.

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